The Confederation of Wholesalers of France (CGF) unveils the results of the wholesale trade activity barometer established in partnership with Xerfi Specific, a new tool intended to measure developments in a key sector of the economy.
For Philippe Barbier, President of the Confederation of Wholesalers of France, “the establishment of a wholesale trade barometer was a priority. This tool meets a simple need, most primordial : have quarterly information that allows us to quantify our activity, measure and objectify its evolution and note in particular the way in which our different sectors behave”. With 150,000 companies, one million employees and 850 billion euros in turnover, the wholesale sector recorded a growth of 10,5% of activity for the year 2022, but shows concern about the 2023 outlook. More precisely, in the months of October, November and December 2022, wholesale trade grew in France by 9% compared to the same period in 2021. Throughout 2022, overall growth of the sector reaches 10,5 %. This clear progression, especially in the fourth trimester, is closely linked to the concomitant generalization of the rise in prices and production costs to which wholesalers were confronted. It is also explained by a rebound in consumption by end consumers, especially on the food part. Despite everything, such a performance hides fears for 2023, with a downward expectation for the first half of 2023, whatever the sector.
Inflation driving growth
Sustained growth was driven in particular by the performance of agricultural and food products, strictly linked to the general rise in prices. If the barometer reveals a clear upward trend in wholesale trade activity over the year 2022, differences can be observed depending on the branches. Agricultural and food products : +12,5 %. Manufactured products : +10 %. Building, industry and capital goods : +7,5 %. Health : +7,5 %. L’inflation, who reached 5,2% on average in 2022 in France according to INSEE, played a leading role. For agricultural and food products, the 12,5% growth in activity should be put into perspective of a 12% increase in food prices over the same period. At the same time, wholesalers were also faced with a significant increase of 16,6% of long distance logistics cost, with a direct impact on their operations.
In 2023, unanimous concern of professionals
A majority of wholesalers now anticipate a deterioration in activity in 2023, with particular fears linked to the increase in prices of suppliers of goods (excluding logistics and operation), that more than eight out of ten professionals now anticipate. Building sectors, industry and capital goods, as well as those of agricultural and food products, anticipate the biggest declines. Recruitment difficulties, particularly on field profiles such as delivery drivers, that 91% of wholesale companies reported experiencing in the fourth quarter of 2022, will continue in 2023. The sector generally recruits 90,000 people each year and mobilizes 60,000 trucks.. “The strong performance of wholesale trade in 2022 must be understood and analyzed in the light of a very specific economic context., full of uncertainties. Wholesalers have been able to cope with this state of affairs, but must now face 2023 with greater apprehensions, that you have to listen to. »
